Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 30?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 25¢ · $852 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$851.63
-$191.55
38.5¢ → 24.5¢
-36% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
35h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 72.4¢ | $340.71 | $322.72 | -$15.52 | 21% 292-1070 (1362) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72.4¢ | $233.53 | $243.65 | +$10.13 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 32.3¢ | $104.32 | $79.07 | -$25.65 | |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 36.2¢ | $368.59 | $239.37 | -$129.22 | 47% 627-714 (1341) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 51.7¢ | $133.02 | $185.36 | +$12.44 | 55% 349-283 (632) |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 44.5¢ | $170.61 | $93.92 | -$76.69 | 59% 1708-1169 (2877) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $22.07 | $10.27 | +$1.92 | 57% 13416-10256 (23672) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$340.71
Value
$322.72
PnL
-$15.52
Record
21%
292-1070 (1362)
Both legs:
Invested
$368.59
Value
$239.37
PnL
-$129.22
Record
47%
627-714 (1341)
Invested
$133.02
Value
$185.36
PnL
+$12.44
Record
55%
349-283 (632)
Invested
$170.61
Value
$93.92
PnL
-$76.69
Record
59%
1708-1169 (2877)
Invested
$22.07
Value
$10.27
PnL
+$1.92
Record
57%
13416-10256 (23672)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.