Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 30?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 35¢ · $402 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
$401.55
$30.14
44¢ → 35¢
-21% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 48.5¢ | $211.18 | $241.82 | +$30.64 | 47% 585-672 (1257) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.2¢ | $67.92 | $63.18 | -$4.74 | 62% 1434-876 (2310) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.1¢ | $53.5 | $60.5 | +$7 | 50% 1654-1642 (3296) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $20.4 | $20 | -$0.4 | 26% 281-787 (1068) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $14.94 | $12.78 | -$2.17 | 57% 13143-10017 (23160) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.23 | -$0.17 | 61% 20693-13116 (33809) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $9.38 | $1.05 | -$0.01 | 53% 6330-5547 (11877) |
Invested
$211.18
Value
$241.82
PnL
+$30.64
Record
47%
585-672 (1257)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$67.92
Value
$63.18
PnL
-$4.74
Record
62%
1434-876 (2310)
Invested
$53.5
Value
$60.5
PnL
+$7
Record
50%
1654-1642 (3296)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$20.4
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.4
Record
26%
281-787 (1068)
Invested
$14.94
Value
$12.78
PnL
-$2.17
Record
57%
13143-10017 (23160)
balthazar<$100Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$0.17
Record
61%
20693-13116 (33809)
Invested
$9.38
Value
$1.05
PnL
-$0.01
Record
53%
6330-5547 (11877)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.