Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 29?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 24¢ · $662 held · ends Oct 29

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$661.72

Combined PnL

$277.39

Smart Money Entry

16.8¢ → 24¢

+43% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$478.52

Total Shares1,547

Combined PnL+$219.53

No2 traders

Total Value$183.2

Total Shares244

Combined PnL+$57.85

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 15.5¢	$149.75	$333.27	+$183.52	51% 600-573 (1173)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 65.2¢	$115.18	$177.54	+$62.36	55% 302-247 (549)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 19.8¢	$106.11	$134	+$27.89	60% 1636-1103 (2739)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$48.64	$11.25	+$8.13	53% 6381-5587 (11968)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$53.44	$5.66	-$4.51	57% 13257-10098 (23355)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$149.75

Value

$333.27

PnL

+$183.52

Record

51%

600-573 (1173)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$115.18

Value

$177.54

PnL

+$62.36

Record

55%

302-247 (549)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$106.11

Value

$134

PnL

+$27.89

Record

60%

1636-1103 (2739)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.64

Value

$11.25

PnL

+$8.13

Record

53%

6381-5587 (11968)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$53.44

Value

$5.66

PnL

-$4.51

Record

57%

13257-10098 (23355)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.9%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$285.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.