Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 96¢ · $561 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$561.27
$40.19
49.5¢ → 96¢
+94% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 49.2¢ | $299.18 | $380.99 | +$40.31 | 60% 1636-1103 (2739) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 49.3¢ | $134.64 | $147.74 | +$13.09 | 55% 302-247 (549) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 46.6¢ | $214.8 | $27.18 | -$11.19 | 53% 6381-5587 (11968) |
BE berlinskies<$100 | Yesavg 81¢ | $5.99 | $4.96 | -$1.04 | 58% 5787-4241 (10028) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 17¢ | $1.4 | $0.41 | -$0.99 | 57% 13272-10114 (23386) |
Invested
$299.18
Value
$380.99
PnL
+$40.31
Record
60%
1636-1103 (2739)
Invested
$134.64
Value
$147.74
PnL
+$13.09
Record
55%
302-247 (549)
Invested
$214.8
Value
$27.18
PnL
-$11.19
Record
53%
6381-5587 (11968)
Invested
$5.99
Value
$4.96
PnL
-$1.04
Record
58%
5787-4241 (10028)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$0.41
PnL
-$0.99
Record
57%
13272-10114 (23386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.