Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 28?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 62¢ · $545 held · ends Oct 28

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$544.98

Combined PnL

-$19.03

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 62¢

+27% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$460.11

Total Shares974

Combined PnL-$17.64

No3 traders

Total Value$84.43

Total Shares98

Combined PnL-$1.39

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 49.2¢	$410.07	$391.84	-$18.23	52% 555-509 (1064)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 53.1¢	$71.02	$69.6	-$1.06	36% 273-477 (750)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 45.9¢	$55.2	$56.51	+$1.32	62% 20228-12642 (32870)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$12.49	$11.76	-$0.73	61% 1497-943 (2440)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$12.16	$11.52	-$0.64	57% 12548-9494 (22042)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$3	$3.31	+$0.31	36% 14393-25798 (40191)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$410.07

Value

$391.84

PnL

-$18.23

Record

52%

555-509 (1064)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$71.02

Value

$69.6

PnL

-$1.06

Record

36%

273-477 (750)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.2

Value

$56.51

PnL

+$1.32

Record

62%

20228-12642 (32870)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.49

Value

$11.76

PnL

-$0.73

Record

61%

1497-943 (2440)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$12.16

Value

$11.52

PnL

-$0.64

Record

57%

12548-9494 (22042)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$3.31

PnL

+$0.31

Record

36%

14393-25798 (40191)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.