Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $214 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$213.99
$1.52
98.9¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.2¢ | $174.24 | $174.58 | +$0.35 | 61% 20465-12833 (33298) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $24.2 | $24.85 | +$0.48 | 61% 1506-947 (2453) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $12.97 | $12.97 | +$0 | 36% 14490-25940 (40430) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $19.44 | $1.58 | +$0.7 | 57% 12861-9776 (22637) |
balthazarInvested
$174.24
Value
$174.58
PnL
+$0.35
Record
61%
20465-12833 (33298)
Invested
$24.2
Value
$24.85
PnL
+$0.48
Record
61%
1506-947 (2453)
Invested
$12.97
Value
$12.97
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14490-25940 (40430)
Invested
$19.44
Value
$1.58
PnL
+$0.7
Record
57%
12861-9776 (22637)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.