Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on November 9?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 9

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$31.81

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 99.4¢

+3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,027

Combined PnL+$22.58

Yes2 traders

Total Value$14.51

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$9.23

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 97.4¢	$312.7	$319	+$6.31	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 97¢	$128.93	$131.2	+$2.27	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 96.8¢	$123.67	$127.01	+$3.34	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 96¢	$100.12	$102.97	+$2.85	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$81.46	$84.62	+$3.16	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$64.54	$66.26	+$1.72	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$49.87	$50.2	+$0.33	41% 2520-3700 (6220)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$48.55	$48.99	+$0.45	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$36.02	$36.51	+$0.49	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$26.78	$27.41	+$0.64	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93¢	$25.84	$24.17	+$1.03	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$3.89	$11.01	+$7.12	37% 913-1562 (2475)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.6¢	$1.4	$3.5	+$2.1	26% 2319-6715 (9034)

Lucerys

Invested

$312.7

Value

$319

PnL

+$6.31

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$128.93

Value

$131.2

PnL

+$2.27

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$123.67

Value

$127.01

PnL

+$3.34

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$100.12

Value

$102.97

PnL

+$2.85

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$81.46

Value

$84.62

PnL

+$3.16

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$64.54

Value

$66.26

PnL

+$1.72

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

123987456<$100

Invested

$49.87

Value

$50.2

PnL

+$0.33

Record

41%

2520-3700 (6220)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$48.55

Value

$48.99

PnL

+$0.45

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$36.02

Value

$36.51

PnL

+$0.49

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$26.78

Value

$27.41

PnL

+$0.64

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.84

Value

$24.17

PnL

+$1.03

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.89

Value

$11.01

PnL

+$7.12

Record

37%

913-1562 (2475)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$2.1

Record

26%

2319-6715 (9034)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.