Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on November 9?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 69¢ · $654 held · ends Nov 9

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$654.41

Combined PnL

$161.33

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 69¢

+21% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$654.41

Total Shares864

Combined PnL+$161.33

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 55.2¢	$126.81	$199.71	+$72.9	26% 2319-6715 (9034)
Lucerys	Noavg 57.8¢	$97.97	$117.03	+$19.06	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Noavg 52¢	$50.45	$84.39	+$33.94	37% 913-1562 (2475)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 66.7¢	$75.96	$78.62	+$2.66	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 53.1¢	$42.39	$57.84	+$15.45	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 53.7¢	$29.04	$38.15	+$9.12	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 52.1¢	$14.73	$19.94	+$5.21	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 53.7¢	$16.22	$17.97	+$1.75	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 66¢	$25.57	$12.37	-$2.62	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 68.4¢	$11.9	$12	+$0.1	54% 10777-9308 (20085)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 61¢	$8.97	$10.15	+$1.18	53% 8890-8041 (16931)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 51¢	$3.66	$6.24	+$2.58	36% 1206-2165 (3371)

hello.67

Invested

$126.81

Value

$199.71

PnL

+$72.9

Record

26%

2319-6715 (9034)

Lucerys

Invested

$97.97

Value

$117.03

PnL

+$19.06

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Invested

$50.45

Value

$84.39

PnL

+$33.94

Record

37%

913-1562 (2475)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$75.96

Value

$78.62

PnL

+$2.66

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$42.39

Value

$57.84

PnL

+$15.45

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$29.04

Value

$38.15

PnL

+$9.12

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$14.73

Value

$19.94

PnL

+$5.21

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$16.22

Value

$17.97

PnL

+$1.75

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.57

Value

$12.37

PnL

-$2.62

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$11.9

Value

$12

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

10777-9308 (20085)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$8.97

Value

$10.15

PnL

+$1.18

Record

53%

8890-8041 (16931)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.66

Value

$6.24

PnL

+$2.58

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.