Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on November 8?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 38¢ · $245 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$244.57
-$0.01
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Yesavg 35.2¢ | $213.45 | $231.52 | +$18.07 | 37% 903-1557 (2460) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51.9¢ | $102.17 | $122.14 | +$19.97 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35.2¢ | $111.28 | $109.38 | -$1.9 | |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.5¢ | $12.57 | $11.32 | -$1.26 | 54% 10730-9241 (19971) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.7¢ | $0.49 | $1.73 | +$1.25 | 42% 2420-3373 (5793) |
Invested
$213.45
Value
$231.52
PnL
+$18.07
Record
37%
903-1557 (2460)
Both legs:
Invested
$12.57
Value
$11.32
PnL
-$1.26
Record
54%
10730-9241 (19971)
Invested
$0.49
Value
$1.73
PnL
+$1.25
Record
42%
2420-3373 (5793)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.