Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C or below on November 7?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.72

Combined PnL

-$87.1

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.72

Total Shares1,444

Combined PnL-$87.1

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$14.54	$0.26	-$14.28	37% 888-1513 (2401)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yes	$0.12	$0.12	-$20.94	38% 7377-11848 (19225)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yes	$0.12	$0.12	-$20.94	47% 10408-11896 (22304)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yes	$0.11	$0.11	-$20.25	39% 1294-2033 (3327)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.26	$0.05	-$0.2	28% 2998-7770 (10768)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$5.53	$0.04	-$5.5	17% 4523-22225 (26748)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.07	$0.02	-$3.62	31% 515-1156 (1671)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.01	-$1.36	41% 972-1394 (2366)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.54

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$14.28

Record

37%

888-1513 (2401)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$20.94

Record

38%

7377-11848 (19225)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$20.94

Record

47%

10408-11896 (22304)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$20.25

Record

39%

1294-2033 (3327)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.2

Record

28%

2998-7770 (10768)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.53

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$5.5

Record

17%

4523-22225 (26748)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.62

Record

31%

515-1156 (1671)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.36

Record

41%

972-1394 (2366)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.