Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on November 6?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Nov 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.44

Combined PnL

-$67.54

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.44

Total Shares877

Combined PnL-$67.54

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.16	-$28.93	47% 10379-11845 (22224)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yes	$0.13	$0.13	-$24.14	35% 1149-2095 (3244)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$9.28	$0.06	-$11.73	40% 851-1275 (2126)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.1	$0.06	-$0.04	53% 12575-10982 (23557)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.3	$0.01	-$1.71	17% 4506-22056 (26562)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$0.53	$0	-$0.53	42% 2368-3244 (5612)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0	$0	-$0.45	42% 914-1244 (2158)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$28.93

Record

47%

10379-11845 (22224)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$24.14

Record

35%

1149-2095 (3244)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.28

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$11.73

Record

40%

851-1275 (2126)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

12575-10982 (23557)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.71

Record

17%

4506-22056 (26562)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

PnL

-$0.53

Record

42%

2368-3244 (5612)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

42%

914-1244 (2158)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.