Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on November 4?

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $239 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$239.3

Combined PnL

-$124.57

Smart Money Entry

9.2¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$238.51

Total Shares238

Combined PnL+$21.08

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.79

Total Shares1,586

Combined PnL-$145.65

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 76.1¢	$137.24	$110.01	-$3.24	15% 432-2410 (2842)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 75.7¢	$22.69	$29.98	+$7.28	79% 12015-3213 (15228)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 70.6¢	$24.05	$27.62	+$3.57	53% 9830-8561 (18391)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 70¢	$15.72	$20	+$4.28	18% 4223-19901 (24124)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 71¢	$14.21	$19.99	+$5.78	58% 2450-1791 (4241)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$33.04	$11.56	-$1.77	58% 18891-13903 (32794)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 68¢	$6.22	$9.15	+$2.92	40% 2086-3131 (5217)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 68¢	$3.48	$5.12	+$1.64	38% 985-1576 (2561)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 67¢	$5.3	$5.08	+$0.61	47% 2062-2341 (4403)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 10.1¢	$143.93	$0.71	-$143.21	44% 775-972 (1747)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$1.24	$0.06	-$1.18	56% 621-493 (1114)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$1.42	$0.02	-$1.25	55% 4349-3535 (7884)

Istaroth

Invested

$137.24

Value

$110.01

PnL

-$3.24

Record

15%

432-2410 (2842)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$22.69

Value

$29.98

PnL

+$7.28

Record

79%

12015-3213 (15228)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$24.05

Value

$27.62

PnL

+$3.57

Record

53%

9830-8561 (18391)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$15.72

Value

$20

PnL

+$4.28

Record

18%

4223-19901 (24124)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$14.21

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$5.78

Record

58%

2450-1791 (4241)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.04

Value

$11.56

PnL

-$1.77

Record

58%

18891-13903 (32794)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.22

Value

$9.15

PnL

+$2.92

Record

40%

2086-3131 (5217)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.48

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$1.64

Record

38%

985-1576 (2561)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$0.61

Record

47%

2062-2341 (4403)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$143.93

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$143.21

Record

44%

775-972 (1747)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.24

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.18

Record

56%

621-493 (1114)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.25

Record

55%

4349-3535 (7884)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.