Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on November 16?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $184 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$184.37

Combined PnL

-$29.77

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$184.12

Total Shares184

Combined PnL+$0.11

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.25

Total Shares251

Combined PnL-$29.88

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 99.9¢	$134.88	$134.87	-$0.01	32% 1142-2481 (3623)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$39.86	$39.96	+$0.1	53% 7612-6705 (14317)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.27	$9.29	+$0.02	29% 1121-2791 (3912)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.09	$0.1	-$8.99	29% 348-840 (1188)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$40.76	$0.05	-$7.66	42% 5253-7309 (12562)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.03	-$2.7	58% 914-665 (1579)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.58	$0.03	-$6.47	26% 614-1782 (2396)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.2	$0.02	-$2.18	54% 1247-1067 (2314)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.52	$0.02	-$1.88	35% 3950-7384 (11334)

mildwindow27

Invested

$134.88

Value

$134.87

PnL

-$0.01

Record

32%

1142-2481 (3623)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.86

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

7612-6705 (14317)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.27

Value

$9.29

PnL

+$0.02

Record

29%

1121-2791 (3912)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.09

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$8.99

Record

29%

348-840 (1188)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.76

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$7.66

Record

42%

5253-7309 (12562)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.7

Record

58%

914-665 (1579)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.58

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.47

Record

26%

614-1782 (2396)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.18

Record

54%

1247-1067 (2314)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.52

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.88

Record

35%

3950-7384 (11334)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.