Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on November 16?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $133 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$133.08
$6.48
95.4¢ → 98¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $58.08 | $58.77 | +$0.69 | 53% 7408-6544 (13952) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $29.01 | $29.39 | +$0.38 | 30% 1154-2705 (3859) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $25.05 | $25.33 | +$0.28 | 42% 1672-2310 (3982) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $7.03 | $7.1 | +$0.07 | 38% 311-502 (813) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $4.75 | $4.81 | +$0.06 | 52% 2230-2031 (4261) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Noavg 48.4¢ | $13.6 | $3.77 | +$12.22 | 54% 1234-1038 (2272) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $2.68 | $2.07 | -$0.61 | 42% 763-1074 (1837) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.09 | $1.84 | -$6.61 | 29% 270-666 (936) |
Invested
$58.08
Value
$58.77
PnL
+$0.69
Record
53%
7408-6544 (13952)
Invested
$29.01
Value
$29.39
PnL
+$0.38
Record
30%
1154-2705 (3859)
Invested
$25.05
Value
$25.33
PnL
+$0.28
Record
42%
1672-2310 (3982)
Invested
$7.03
Value
$7.1
PnL
+$0.07
Record
38%
311-502 (813)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.81
PnL
+$0.06
Record
52%
2230-2031 (4261)
Invested
$13.6
Value
$3.77
PnL
+$12.22
Record
54%
1234-1038 (2272)
Invested
$2.68
Value
$2.07
PnL
-$0.61
Record
42%
763-1074 (1837)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$9.09
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$6.61
Record
29%
270-666 (936)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.