Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 16?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 68¢ · $291 held · ends Nov 16

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$291.34

Combined PnL

$42.37

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 68.3¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$200.41

Total Shares296

Combined PnL+$9.41

Yes2 traders

Total Value$90.69

Total Shares274

Combined PnL+$32.96

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 70.2¢	$94.79	$90.59	-$4.21	39% 334-532 (866)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$77.17	$87.08	+$31.96	54% 1240-1053 (2293)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 65.2¢	$39.12	$40.26	+$1.14	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 74¢	$76.85	$26.84	+$13.33	31% 1127-2476 (3603)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 71.2¢	$23.04	$21.98	-$1.06	71% 954-392 (1346)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 67.2¢	$6.72	$6.83	+$0.11	57% 851-641 (1492)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.7¢	$2.61	$3.61	+$1	42% 808-1111 (1919)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$3.62	$3.53	-$0.09	47% 1255-1396 (2651)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$3.46	$3.52	+$0.06	52% 923-846 (1769)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$3.38	$3.44	+$0.06	60% 888-604 (1492)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$3.36	$3.42	+$0.06	52% 959-896 (1855)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$94.79

Value

$90.59

PnL

-$4.21

Record

39%

334-532 (866)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.17

Value

$87.08

PnL

+$31.96

Record

54%

1240-1053 (2293)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.12

Value

$40.26

PnL

+$1.14

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$76.85

Value

$26.84

PnL

+$13.33

Record

31%

1127-2476 (3603)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$23.04

Value

$21.98

PnL

-$1.06

Record

71%

954-392 (1346)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.72

Value

$6.83

PnL

+$0.11

Record

57%

851-641 (1492)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.61

Value

$3.61

PnL

+$1

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.62

Value

$3.53

PnL

-$0.09

Record

47%

1255-1396 (2651)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.46

Value

$3.52

PnL

+$0.06

Record

52%

923-846 (1769)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.38

Value

$3.44

PnL

+$0.06

Record

60%

888-604 (1492)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.36

Value

$3.42

PnL

+$0.06

Record

52%

959-896 (1855)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.4%

68.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.