Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on November 16?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 40¢ · $126 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$126.39
$53.14
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 49%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith<$100 | Yesavg 52.6¢ | $87.35 | $21.38 | +$46.22 | 29% 308-740 (1048) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 58.5¢ | $20.24 | $20.44 | +$0.2 | 71% 950-388 (1338) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Yesavg 19.4¢ | $6.37 | $19.42 | +$13.05 | 54% 1238-1053 (2291) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 35.4¢ | $14.74 | $16.73 | +$2 | 42% 803-1100 (1903) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.8¢ | $15.54 | $16.1 | +$0.56 | 36% 332-601 (933) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.2¢ | $18.88 | $14.68 | -$4.2 | 53% 7473-6603 (14076) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Noavg 47.4¢ | $14.22 | $11.01 | -$3.21 | 39% 327-521 (848) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.6¢ | $7.55 | $6.07 | -$1.47 | 30% 1175-2733 (3908) |
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$87.35
Value
$21.38
PnL
+$46.22
Record
29%
308-740 (1048)
Invested
$20.24
Value
$20.44
PnL
+$0.2
Record
71%
950-388 (1338)
Invested
$6.37
Value
$19.42
PnL
+$13.05
Record
54%
1238-1053 (2291)
Invested
$14.74
Value
$16.73
PnL
+$2
Record
42%
803-1100 (1903)
Invested
$15.54
Value
$16.1
PnL
+$0.56
Record
36%
332-601 (933)
Invested
$18.88
Value
$14.68
PnL
-$4.2
Record
53%
7473-6603 (14076)
Invested
$14.22
Value
$11.01
PnL
-$3.21
Record
39%
327-521 (848)
Invested
$7.55
Value
$6.07
PnL
-$1.47
Record
30%
1175-2733 (3908)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.