Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on November 16?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 92¢ · $286 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$286.12
$30.23
84.5¢ → 92.3¢
+9% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 80.9¢ | $134.2 | $154.3 | +$20.09 | 53% 2324-2038 (4362) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 91.2¢ | $54.74 | $55.8 | +$1.06 | 53% 7310-6373 (13683) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86.1¢ | $21.91 | $23.6 | +$1.69 | 53% 2063-1842 (3905) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $15.12 | $15.4 | +$0.28 | 30% 1151-2701 (3852) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.09 | $8.7 | -$0.39 | 30% 250-580 (830) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $7.91 | $8.65 | +$0.74 | 36% 286-506 (792) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 88.8¢ | $7.77 | $7.76 | -$0.01 | 33% 80-164 (244) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $6.16 | $6.74 | +$0.58 | 42% 1670-2303 (3973) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 19.1¢ | $101.79 | $5.07 | +$6.18 | 54% 1232-1038 (2270) |
Invested
$134.2
Value
$154.3
PnL
+$20.09
Record
53%
2324-2038 (4362)
Invested
$54.74
Value
$55.8
PnL
+$1.06
Record
53%
7310-6373 (13683)
Invested
$21.91
Value
$23.6
PnL
+$1.69
Record
53%
2063-1842 (3905)
Invested
$15.12
Value
$15.4
PnL
+$0.28
Record
30%
1151-2701 (3852)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$9.09
Value
$8.7
PnL
-$0.39
Record
30%
250-580 (830)
Invested
$7.91
Value
$8.65
PnL
+$0.74
Record
36%
286-506 (792)
Invested
$7.77
Value
$7.76
PnL
-$0.01
Record
33%
80-164 (244)
Invested
$6.16
Value
$6.74
PnL
+$0.58
Record
42%
1670-2303 (3973)
Invested
$101.79
Value
$5.07
PnL
+$6.18
Record
54%
1232-1038 (2270)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.