Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on November 16?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $157 held · ends Nov 16

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$156.69

Combined PnL

-$1.53

Smart Money Entry

97.8¢ → 98.8¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$154.96

Total Shares156

Combined PnL+$13.44

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.72

Total Shares150

Combined PnL-$14.97

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$39.5	$39.84	+$0.34	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$39.81	$39.52	-$0.29	34% 352-671 (1023)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$29.64	$29.88	+$0.24	42% 1694-2332 (4026)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$25.47	$25.76	+$0.28	39% 327-521 (848)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$9.58	$9.96	+$0.39	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$7.13	$7.22	+$0.09	28% 1103-2780 (3883)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Noavg 46¢	$12.44	$2.78	+$12.39	54% 1238-1053 (2291)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.09	$1.15	-$7.94	29% 308-740 (1048)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$40.69	$0.57	-$7.03	42% 5212-7125 (12337)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.5

Value

$39.84

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$39.81

Value

$39.52

PnL

-$0.29

Record

34%

352-671 (1023)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.64

Value

$29.88

PnL

+$0.24

Record

42%

1694-2332 (4026)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$25.47

Value

$25.76

PnL

+$0.28

Record

39%

327-521 (848)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.58

Value

$9.96

PnL

+$0.39

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$7.13

Value

$7.22

PnL

+$0.09

Record

28%

1103-2780 (3883)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Invested

$12.44

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$12.39

Record

54%

1238-1053 (2291)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.09

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$7.94

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.69

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$7.03

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.