Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on November 16?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 100¢ · $241 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$240.98

Combined PnL

-$9.06

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 99.9¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$240.58

Total Shares241

Combined PnL+$14.93

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.4

Total Shares266

Combined PnL-$23.98

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 99.9¢	$181.33	$181.29	-$0.04	28% 1108-2781 (3889)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$39.92	$39.94	+$0.02	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$16.52	$16.53	+$0.01	36% 339-612 (951)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Noavg 52¢	$18.63	$2.83	+$14.94	54% 1240-1053 (2293)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.09	$0.15	-$8.94	29% 315-771 (1086)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.82	$0.13	-$7.69	42% 5221-7153 (12374)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.84	$0.05	-$2.8	38% 323-524 (847)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.05	-$2.68	58% 872-632 (1504)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.52	$0.03	-$1.88	35% 3914-7277 (11191)

graynotebook19

Invested

$181.33

Value

$181.29

PnL

-$0.04

Record

28%

1108-2781 (3889)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.92

Value

$39.94

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$16.52

Value

$16.53

PnL

+$0.01

Record

36%

339-612 (951)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Invested

$18.63

Value

$2.83

PnL

+$14.94

Record

54%

1240-1053 (2293)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.09

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$8.94

Record

29%

315-771 (1086)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.82

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$7.69

Record

42%

5221-7153 (12374)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.84

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.8

Record

38%

323-524 (847)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.68

Record

58%

872-632 (1504)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.52

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.88

Record

35%

3914-7277 (11191)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.