Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on November 16?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $15 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$15.27

Combined PnL

-$50.9

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$14.99

Total Shares15

Combined PnL+$0.01

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.28

Total Shares563

Combined PnL-$50.91

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$14.98	$14.99	+$0.01	99% 1631-24 (1655)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.91	$0.09	-$15.82	38% 323-524 (847)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.09	$0.05	-$9.04	29% 315-771 (1086)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.82	$0.04	-$7.78	42% 5221-7153 (12374)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.8	$0.03	-$5.77	31% 1127-2476 (3603)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.08	$0.02	-$4.06	26% 605-1747 (2352)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.02	-$2.71	58% 872-632 (1504)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.2	$0.01	-$2.19	54% 1240-1053 (2293)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.91	$0.01	-$1.9	35% 3914-7277 (11191)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.65	$0.01	-$1.64	28% 3305-8424 (11729)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$14.98

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

1631-24 (1655)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.91

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$15.82

Record

38%

323-524 (847)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.09

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.04

Record

29%

315-771 (1086)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.82

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.78

Record

42%

5221-7153 (12374)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.8

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.77

Record

31%

1127-2476 (3603)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.08

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.06

Record

26%

605-1747 (2352)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

58%

872-632 (1504)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.19

Record

54%

1240-1053 (2293)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.9

Record

35%

3914-7277 (11191)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.64

Record

28%

3305-8424 (11729)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.