Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on November 16?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 100¢ · $171 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 11%

Total Value

$171.15

Combined PnL

-$42.76

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$170.91

Total Shares171

Combined PnL+$0.09

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.24

Total Shares474

Combined PnL-$42.85

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$170.83	$170.91	+$0.09	99% 1580-23 (1603)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.27	$0.07	-$12.21	37% 305-523 (828)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.09	$0.05	-$9.04	29% 293-715 (1008)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.82	$0.04	-$7.78	42% 5200-7083 (12283)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.8	$0.03	-$5.77	31% 1115-2464 (3579)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.08	$0.02	-$4.06	26% 600-1738 (2338)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.2	$0.01	-$2.19	54% 1237-1050 (2287)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.65	$0.01	-$1.64	28% 3288-8374 (11662)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.16	$0	-$0.16	35% 3888-7213 (11101)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$170.83

Value

$170.91

PnL

+$0.09

Record

99%

1580-23 (1603)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.27

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$12.21

Record

37%

305-523 (828)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.09

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.04

Record

29%

293-715 (1008)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.82

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.78

Record

42%

5200-7083 (12283)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.8

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.77

Record

31%

1115-2464 (3579)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.08

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.06

Record

26%

600-1738 (2338)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.19

Record

54%

1237-1050 (2287)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.64

Record

28%

3288-8374 (11662)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

PnL

-$0.16

Record

35%

3888-7213 (11101)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.