Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 37¢ · $78 held · ends Nov 15

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$77.94

Combined PnL

$9.4

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$50.27

Total Shares127

Combined PnL-$5.69

Yes2 traders

Total Value$27.67

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$15.09

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 37.9¢	$18.4	$18.08	-$0.33	41% 726-1042 (1768)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 54.8¢	$19.72	$17.91	-$0.15	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$15.9	$11.7	-$4.2	42% 1658-2297 (3955)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 52.8¢	$30.57	$9.76	+$15.24	43% 5134-6831 (11965)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$9	$7.8	-$1.2	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 38.4¢	$5.49	$5.57	+$0.08	46% 1163-1351 (2514)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$4	$4	+$0	28% 3241-8219 (11460)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$1.91	$2.01	+$0.1	49% 849-871 (1720)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$1.25	$1.11	-$0.14	49% 820-849 (1669)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$18.08

PnL

-$0.33

Record

41%

726-1042 (1768)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.72

Value

$17.91

PnL

-$0.15

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$15.9

Value

$11.7

PnL

-$4.2

Record

42%

1658-2297 (3955)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.57

Value

$9.76

PnL

+$15.24

Record

43%

5134-6831 (11965)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$7.8

PnL

-$1.2

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$5.49

Value

$5.57

PnL

+$0.08

Record

46%

1163-1351 (2514)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

3241-8219 (11460)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.91

Value

$2.01

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

849-871 (1720)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0.14

Record

49%

820-849 (1669)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.