Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on November 15?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 84¢ · $268 held · ends Nov 15

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$268.05

Combined PnL

$2.22

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 83.5¢

+5% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$260.49

Total Shares312

Combined PnL+$1.81

Yes1 trader

Total Value$7.56

Total Shares95

Combined PnL+$0.41

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 80.8¢	$120.58	$85.4	+$4.74	42% 754-1062 (1816)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$44.92	$45.77	+$0.85	71% 917-377 (1294)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$57.44	$27.99	+$3.18	43% 5158-6923 (12081)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 92¢	$48.91	$24.42	-$2.36	30% 250-580 (830)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 81.1¢	$16.51	$15.26	-$1.24	51% 898-846 (1744)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 73.2¢	$12.48	$12.8	+$0.31	52% 862-787 (1649)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 73.7¢	$10.78	$11.27	+$0.48	47% 1192-1364 (2556)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 81.3¢	$9.98	$9.21	-$0.77	47% 849-947 (1796)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 81.8¢	$30.79	$8.85	-$2.65	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 81¢	$8.29	$8.03	-$0.26	57% 796-604 (1400)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.6¢	$7.15	$7.56	+$0.41	68% 89-42 (131)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 79¢	$7.9	$7.5	-$0.4	50% 875-892 (1767)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 80¢	$4.07	$4	-$0.08	59% 824-563 (1387)

241532532432

Invested

$120.58

Value

$85.4

PnL

+$4.74

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$44.92

Value

$45.77

PnL

+$0.85

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$57.44

Value

$27.99

PnL

+$3.18

Record

43%

5158-6923 (12081)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$48.91

Value

$24.42

PnL

-$2.36

Record

30%

250-580 (830)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$16.51

Value

$15.26

PnL

-$1.24

Record

51%

898-846 (1744)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$12.48

Value

$12.8

PnL

+$0.31

Record

52%

862-787 (1649)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.78

Value

$11.27

PnL

+$0.48

Record

47%

1192-1364 (2556)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.21

PnL

-$0.77

Record

47%

849-947 (1796)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$30.79

Value

$8.85

PnL

-$2.65

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$8.29

Value

$8.03

PnL

-$0.26

Record

57%

796-604 (1400)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.15

Value

$7.56

PnL

+$0.41

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$7.9

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$0.4

Record

50%

875-892 (1767)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.07

Value

PnL

-$0.08

Record

59%

824-563 (1387)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.