Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on November 14?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (92%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $61 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 92%

Total Value

$61.01

Combined PnL

-$73.59

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$60.6

Total Shares61

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes11 traders

Total Value$0.41

Total Shares819

Combined PnL-$73.62

No — 8%Yes — 92%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$60.57	$60.6	+$0.03	29% 232-564 (796)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$25.25	$0.14	-$25.11	55% 1208-979 (2187)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.34	$0.07	-$12.27	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.04	$0.06	-$9.98	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.34	$0.05	-$8.3	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6	$0.03	-$5.97	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.91	$0.03	-$5.88	29% 3158-7813 (10971)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.36	$0.01	-$2.35	51% 782-754 (1536)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	31% 146-327 (473)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.52	$0.01	-$1.51	26% 548-1574 (2122)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0	+$0	25% 1304-3920 (5224)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	27% 667-1774 (2441)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$60.57

Value

$60.6

PnL

+$0.03

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.25

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$25.11

Record

55%

1208-979 (2187)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.34

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$12.27

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.04

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$9.98

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.34

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.3

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.97

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.88

Record

29%

3158-7813 (10971)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.36

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.35

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.52

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.51

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

1304-3920 (5224)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.