Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on November 14?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $286 held · ends Nov 14

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$286.32

Combined PnL

-$1.16

Smart Money Entry

96.7¢ → 97.4¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$281.49

Total Shares284

Combined PnL+$6.75

Yes4 traders

Total Value$4.83

Total Shares171

Combined PnL-$7.91

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-28 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98¢	$73.5	$74.43	+$0.93	29% 1059-2631 (3690)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 96¢	$59.9	$61.93	+$2.03	38% 543-874 (1417)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$46.59	$47.05	+$0.46	29% 185-443 (628)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91.8¢	$36.7	$39.1	+$2.4	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$29.48	$29.77	+$0.29	27% 197-540 (737)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$28.57	$29.21	+$0.64	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.04	$3.31	-$6.72	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.8	$0.8	+$0	37% 165-281 (446)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.6	-$1.22	30% 108-251 (359)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.09	$0.11	+$0.03	25% 1282-3832 (5114)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$73.5

Value

$74.43

PnL

+$0.93

Record

29%

1059-2631 (3690)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$59.9

Value

$61.93

PnL

+$2.03

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$46.59

Value

$47.05

PnL

+$0.46

Record

29%

185-443 (628)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$36.7

Value

$39.1

PnL

+$2.4

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.48

Value

$29.77

PnL

+$0.29

Record

27%

197-540 (737)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.57

Value

$29.21

PnL

+$0.64

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.04

Value

$3.31

PnL

-$6.72

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.8

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

165-281 (446)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$1.22

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.11

PnL

+$0.03

Record

25%

1282-3832 (5114)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-28 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.