Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 14?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 21¢ · $394 held · ends Nov 14

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$394.1

Combined PnL

$168.48

Smart Money Entry

15¢ → 20.5¢

+37% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$285.83

Total Shares1,269

Combined PnL+$116.14

No5 traders

Total Value$108.26

Total Shares132

Combined PnL+$52.33

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 14.9¢	$273.67	$261.82	+$100.08	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 77¢	$30.8	$31	+$0.2	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
Haradwaith	Noavg 83.7¢	$100.88	$26.53	+$2.24	30% 108-251 (359)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 76¢	$231.37	$21.92	+$52.05	56% 1189-918 (2107)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 86¢	$22.77	$21.71	-$1.06	73% 778-291 (1069)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 15.8¢	$129.38	$13.95	+$11.14	38% 543-874 (1417)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.6¢	$6.61	$8.02	+$1.4	37% 165-281 (446)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86¢	$14.8	$7.09	-$1.1	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.75	$1.13	+$0.38	25% 1282-3832 (5114)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$35.57	$0.92	+$3.15	36% 3613-6424 (10037)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$273.67

Value

$261.82

PnL

+$100.08

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30.8

Value

$31

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

Haradwaith

Invested

$100.88

Value

$26.53

PnL

+$2.24

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$231.37

Value

$21.92

PnL

+$52.05

Record

56%

1189-918 (2107)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$22.77

Value

$21.71

PnL

-$1.06

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$129.38

Value

$13.95

PnL

+$11.14

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.61

Value

$8.02

PnL

+$1.4

Record

37%

165-281 (446)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.8

Value

$7.09

PnL

-$1.1

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.38

Record

25%

1282-3832 (5114)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.57

Value

$0.92

PnL

+$3.15

Record

36%

3613-6424 (10037)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.