Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on November 14?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 24¢ · $880 held · ends Nov 14

Yes76¢No24¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$879.85

Combined PnL

-$52.75

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 24¢

-57% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$519.13

Total Shares1,541

Combined PnL-$303.9

Yes5 traders

Total Value$360.72

Total Shares541

Combined PnL+$251.15

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Noavg 61¢	$598.31	$321.93	-$171.31	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 20.9¢	$100.28	$317.4	+$217.12	56% 1189-918 (2107)
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 56.6¢	$143.47	$65.87	-$77.6	38% 543-874 (1417)
LornaPredictsCTR	Noavg 40.5¢	$163.84	$40.91	-$26.05	13% 62-416 (478)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 44.9¢	$34.76	$28.64	-$6.12	31% 221-498 (719)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$36	$27.75	-$8.25	29% 185-443 (628)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 62.1¢	$22.12	$26.37	+$4.25	37% 165-281 (446)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 61.4¢	$16.94	$13.66	-$3.27	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 52.5¢	$21	$10.4	-$10.6	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 45.6¢	$40.76	$9.97	-$0.7	30% 108-251 (359)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 58.9¢	$8.14	$9.12	+$0.98	73% 778-291 (1069)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.12	$4.03	+$28.05	36% 3613-6424 (10037)
AH aHjCz<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.8	+$0.75	25% 1282-3832 (5114)

hello.67CTR

Invested

$598.31

Value

$321.93

PnL

-$171.31

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$100.28

Value

$317.4

PnL

+$217.12

Record

56%

1189-918 (2107)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$143.47

Value

$65.87

PnL

-$77.6

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

LornaPredictsCTR

Invested

$163.84

Value

$40.91

PnL

-$26.05

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$34.76

Value

$28.64

PnL

-$6.12

Record

31%

221-498 (719)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$36

Value

$27.75

PnL

-$8.25

Record

29%

185-443 (628)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.12

Value

$26.37

PnL

+$4.25

Record

37%

165-281 (446)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$16.94

Value

$13.66

PnL

-$3.27

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$10.6

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$40.76

Value

$9.97

PnL

-$0.7

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.14

Value

$9.12

PnL

+$0.98

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.12

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$28.05

Record

36%

3613-6424 (10037)

aHjCz<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$0.75

Record

25%

1282-3832 (5114)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.9%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$285.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.