Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on November 14?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $175 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$175.36

Combined PnL

-$98.99

Smart Money Entry

17.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$106.6

Total Shares117

Combined PnL+$11.94

Yes8 traders

Total Value$68.74

Total Shares1,043

Combined PnL-$110.93

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$33	$39.98	+$6.98	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.5¢	$76.55	$39.53	-$37.02	56% 1189-918 (2107)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 74.3¢	$27.68	$29.97	+$2.29	73% 778-291 (1069)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.5¢	$80.65	$27.51	-$53.14	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 77¢	$23.1	$25.2	+$2.1	30% 989-2362 (3351)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74.2¢	$24.18	$11.45	+$0.57	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$1.6	-$0.22	30% 108-251 (359)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.1¢	$22.1	$0.04	-$17.48	38% 543-874 (1417)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$6.45	$0.04	-$2.12	13% 62-416 (478)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$3.3	$0.02	-$3.28	37% 165-281 (446)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$35.29	$0.01	+$3.03	65% 4251-2269 (6520)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.7	$0	-$0.7	25% 1282-3832 (5114)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$33

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$6.98

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.55

Value

$39.53

PnL

-$37.02

Record

56%

1189-918 (2107)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$27.68

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$2.29

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.65

Value

$27.51

PnL

-$53.14

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$23.1

Value

$25.2

PnL

+$2.1

Record

30%

989-2362 (3351)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.18

Value

$11.45

PnL

+$0.57

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.22

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.1

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$17.48

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.45

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.12

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.3

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.28

Record

37%

165-281 (446)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.29

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$3.03

Record

65%

4251-2269 (6520)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

PnL

-$0.7

Record

25%

1282-3832 (5114)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.