Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on November 14?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 100¢ · $173 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 30%

Total Value

$172.54

Combined PnL

-$73.31

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$171.68

Total Shares172

Combined PnL+$2.96

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.86

Total Shares918

Combined PnL-$76.28

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 97.2¢	$118.98	$121.89	+$2.91	30% 993-2362 (3355)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$29.82	$29.87	+$0.05	30% 189-443 (632)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.92	$19.92	-$0	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	$43.3	$0.41	-$42.9	57% 2248-1724 (3972)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$25.25	$0.28	-$24.97	56% 1200-949 (2149)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$6.9	$0.09	-$6.81	39% 579-908 (1487)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.23	$0.06	-$0.17	13% 65-441 (506)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.02	-$1.8	31% 114-255 (369)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.26	$0.01	+$0.37	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	25% 1284-3841 (5125)

mildwindow27

Invested

$118.98

Value

$121.89

PnL

+$2.91

Record

30%

993-2362 (3355)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.82

Value

$29.87

PnL

+$0.05

Record

30%

189-443 (632)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.92

Value

$19.92

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.3

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$42.9

Record

57%

2248-1724 (3972)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.25

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$24.97

Record

56%

1200-949 (2149)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.9

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$6.81

Record

39%

579-908 (1487)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.17

Record

13%

65-441 (506)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.8

Record

31%

114-255 (369)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.37

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

1284-3841 (5125)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.