Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on November 14?

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 100¢ · $173 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 17%

Total Value

$172.64

Combined PnL

-$64.8

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$172.32

Total Shares172

Combined PnL+$0.4

Yes10 traders

Total Value$0.32

Total Shares634

Combined PnL-$65.2

No — 17%Yes — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 99.7¢	$151.94	$152.33	+$0.39	42% 1621-2282 (3903)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.99	+$0.01	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$25.25	$0.14	-$25.11	55% 1208-979 (2187)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.04	$0.06	-$9.98	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$61.38	$0.04	-$12.24	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.91	$0.03	-$5.88	29% 3158-7813 (10971)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$42.21	$0.01	-$5.87	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.36	$0.01	-$2.35	51% 782-754 (1536)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	31% 146-327 (473)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.52	$0.01	-$1.51	26% 548-1574 (2122)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0	+$0	25% 1304-3920 (5224)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	27% 667-1774 (2441)

haveagoodday

Invested

$151.94

Value

$152.33

PnL

+$0.39

Record

42%

1621-2282 (3903)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.25

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$25.11

Record

55%

1208-979 (2187)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.04

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$9.98

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.38

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$12.24

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.88

Record

29%

3158-7813 (10971)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.21

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.87

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.36

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.35

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.52

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.51

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

1304-3920 (5224)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.