Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on November 14?

1 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (8%) · No at 100¢ · $160 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 8%

Total Value

$160.35

Combined PnL

-$79.02

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 12 top traders (8%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$159.92

Total Shares160

Combined PnL+$0.08

Yes11 traders

Total Value$0.43

Total Shares860

Combined PnL-$79.1

No — 8%Yes — 92%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

8% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$159.84	$159.92	+$0.08	99% 1195-12 (1207)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$25.25	$0.14	-$25.11	55% 1208-979 (2187)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.34	$0.07	-$12.27	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.86	$0.07	-$13.77	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.04	$0.06	-$9.98	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6	$0.03	-$5.97	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.91	$0.03	-$5.88	29% 3158-7813 (10971)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.36	$0.01	-$2.35	51% 782-754 (1536)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	31% 146-327 (473)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.52	$0.01	-$1.51	26% 548-1574 (2122)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0	+$0	25% 1304-3920 (5224)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	27% 667-1774 (2441)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$159.84

Value

$159.92

PnL

+$0.08

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.25

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$25.11

Record

55%

1208-979 (2187)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.34

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$12.27

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.86

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$13.77

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.04

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$9.98

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.97

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.88

Record

29%

3158-7813 (10971)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.36

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.35

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.52

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.51

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

1304-3920 (5224)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 12 top traders (8%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

8% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.