Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on November 13?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $221 held · ends Nov 13

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$220.77

Combined PnL

-$5.01

Smart Money Entry

93.5¢ → 96.1¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$201.53

Total Shares213

Combined PnL+$2.86

Yes3 traders

Total Value$19.24

Total Shares298

Combined PnL-$7.88

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92¢	$66.56	$67.13	+$1.44	53% 933-821 (1754)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$64.57	$65.8	+$1.23	35% 414-754 (1168)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$56.96	$51.8	-$0.13	37% 3468-5986 (9454)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$9.39	$9.51	+$0.12	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.05	$9.26	-$3.79	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.59	$7.51	-$3.08	58% 1038-744 (1782)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 96¢	$4.87	$4.87	+$0.01	62% 474-292 (766)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.47	$2.46	-$1.01	47% 4825-5517 (10342)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 94¢	$2.22	$2.42	+$0.2	48% 492-536 (1028)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$66.56

Value

$67.13

PnL

+$1.44

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$64.57

Value

$65.8

PnL

+$1.23

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$56.96

Value

$51.8

PnL

-$0.13

Record

37%

3468-5986 (9454)

suntori<$100

Invested

$9.39

Value

$9.51

PnL

+$0.12

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.05

Value

$9.26

PnL

-$3.79

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.59

Value

$7.51

PnL

-$3.08

Record

58%

1038-744 (1782)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.87

Value

$4.87

PnL

+$0.01

Record

62%

474-292 (766)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.47

Value

$2.46

PnL

-$1.01

Record

47%

4825-5517 (10342)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.22

Value

$2.42

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

492-536 (1028)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.