Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 13?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 79¢ · $897 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$897.42
$13.61
74.4¢ → 79¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 73.3¢ | $498.89 | $503.55 | +$4.66 | 59% 1025-712 (1737) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 76¢ | $321.84 | $332.43 | +$10.59 | 68% 2092-980 (3072) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 74.2¢ | $32.89 | $29.24 | -$0.82 | 55% 650-530 (1180) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 76.7¢ | $29.32 | $28.27 | -$1.05 | 51% 4735-4557 (9292) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $3.93 | +$0.23 | 34% 338-670 (1008) |
Invested
$498.89
Value
$503.55
PnL
+$4.66
Record
59%
1025-712 (1737)
Invested
$321.84
Value
$332.43
PnL
+$10.59
Record
68%
2092-980 (3072)
Invested
$32.89
Value
$29.24
PnL
-$0.82
Record
55%
650-530 (1180)
balthazar<$100Invested
$29.32
Value
$28.27
PnL
-$1.05
Record
51%
4735-4557 (9292)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$3.93
PnL
+$0.23
Record
34%
338-670 (1008)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.