Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on November 13?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 18¢ · $109 held · ends Nov 13

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$109.38

Combined PnL

$11.93

Smart Money Entry

31¢ → 18¢

-42% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$77.78

Total Shares486

Combined PnL-$24.6

No3 traders

Total Value$31.6

Total Shares37

Combined PnL+$36.53

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 36.1¢	$160.1	$34.22	+$4.6	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.9¢	$27.81	$22.4	-$5.41	12% 37-269 (306)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 83¢	$23.77	$21.97	-$1.8	76% 675-216 (891)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.6¢	$48.31	$19.84	-$22.47	35% 414-754 (1168)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80¢	$7.24	$7.42	+$0.18	53% 925-815 (1740)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Noavg 58.7¢	$69.96	$2.2	+$38.15	58% 1038-744 (1782)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$1.65	$0.83	-$0.83	62% 473-292 (765)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$0.98	$0.49	-$0.49	47% 544-625 (1169)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$160.1

Value

$34.22

PnL

+$4.6

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.81

Value

$22.4

PnL

-$5.41

Record

12%

37-269 (306)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$23.77

Value

$21.97

PnL

-$1.8

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.31

Value

$19.84

PnL

-$22.47

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.24

Value

$7.42

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Invested

$69.96

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$38.15

Record

58%

1038-744 (1782)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$0.83

Record

62%

473-292 (765)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$0.49

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.8%

18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$405.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

505.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.