Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on November 13?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 26¢ · $224 held · ends Nov 13

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$224.25

Combined PnL

-$19.97

Smart Money Entry

26.7¢ → 26¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$178.47

Total Shares738

Combined PnL-$18.18

No2 traders

Total Value$45.78

Total Shares64

Combined PnL-$1.79

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 30.8¢	$134.43	$91.75	-$42.67	59% 1025-712 (1737)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.3¢	$37.84	$51.49	+$13.65	68% 2092-980 (3072)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.3¢	$23.7	$33.93	+$10.23	34% 338-670 (1008)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 84¢	$32.1	$27.13	-$4.97	51% 4735-4557 (9292)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$30.56	$18.64	+$3.17	55% 650-530 (1180)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$0.68	$1.3	+$0.62	13% 26-177 (203)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$134.43

Value

$91.75

PnL

-$42.67

Record

59%

1025-712 (1737)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.84

Value

$51.49

PnL

+$13.65

Record

68%

2092-980 (3072)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.7

Value

$33.93

PnL

+$10.23

Record

34%

338-670 (1008)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$32.1

Value

$27.13

PnL

-$4.97

Record

51%

4735-4557 (9292)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$30.56

Value

$18.64

PnL

+$3.17

Record

55%

650-530 (1180)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$0.62

Record

13%

26-177 (203)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.0%

26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$257.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

357.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.