Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on November 12?

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 100¢ · $207 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 13%

Total Value

$206.94

Combined PnL

-$100.14

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$198.4

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$1.4

Yes7 traders

Total Value$8.54

Total Shares1,067

Combined PnL-$98.74

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$199.8	$198.4	-$1.4	99% 398-3 (401)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$55.15	$4.85	-$50.3	61% 1153-751 (1904)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.65	$1.11	-$11.54	68% 2115-1000 (3115)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.97	$0.88	-$9.09	51% 4781-4575 (9356)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$67.06	$0.74	-$12.93	39% 3421-5409 (8830)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.43	$0.73	-$7.54	65% 444-243 (687)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$61.2	$0.15	-$6.51	19% 87-376 (463)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.08	-$0.83	32% 2924-6249 (9173)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$199.8

Value

$198.4

PnL

-$1.4

Record

99%

398-3 (401)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.15

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$50.3

Record

61%

1153-751 (1904)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.65

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$11.54

Record

68%

2115-1000 (3115)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.97

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$9.09

Record

51%

4781-4575 (9356)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.06

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$12.93

Record

39%

3421-5409 (8830)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.43

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$7.54

Record

65%

444-243 (687)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.2

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$6.51

Record

19%

87-376 (463)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.83

Record

32%

2924-6249 (9173)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.