Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $265 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$264.52
-$0.76
99.7¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $109.66 | $109.32 | -$0.34 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $87.1 | $86.83 | -$0.27 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.88 | -$0.03 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.81 | -$0.11 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $5.14 | $5.13 | -$0.02 | 43% 383-513 (896) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $3.57 | $3.56 | -$0.01 | 41% 688-988 (1676) |
balthazarInvested
$109.66
Value
$109.32
PnL
-$0.34
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$87.1
Value
$86.83
PnL
-$0.27
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.88
PnL
-$0.03
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.81
PnL
-$0.11
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$5.14
Value
$5.13
PnL
-$0.02
Record
43%
383-513 (896)
Invested
$3.57
Value
$3.56
PnL
-$0.01
Record
41%
688-988 (1676)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.