Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on November 12?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 92¢ · $463 held · ends Nov 12

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$463.25

Combined PnL

$4.95

Smart Money Entry

92.5¢ → 92¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$277.79

Total Shares300

Combined PnL+$0.16

Yes1 trader

Total Value$66.49

Total Shares831

Combined PnL+$4.78

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 91.2¢	$113.49	$118.97	+$5.48	31% 285-621 (906)
└ No leg	Noavg 91.2¢	$93.74	$95.04	+$1.3
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.2¢	$19.75	$23.93	+$4.18
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$80.81	$80.85	+$0.03	37% 3197-5378 (8575)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.4¢	$61.71	$66.49	+$4.78	68% 2063-953 (3016)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$65.63	$65.87	+$0.24	51% 4649-4526 (9175)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91.9¢	$53.32	$53.66	+$0.34	54% 553-471 (1024)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 92¢	$27.6	$27.75	+$0.15	17% 76-374 (450)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 93¢	$27.9	$27.75	-$0.15	17% 66-330 (396)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 95¢	$19	$18.6	-$0.4	53% 5657-5082 (10739)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 94¢	$3.37	$3.31	-$0.05	42% 370-503 (873)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$113.49

Value

$118.97

PnL

+$5.48

Record

31%

285-621 (906)

Both legs:

No$93.7491.2¢+$1.3

Yes$19.756.2¢+$4.18

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$80.81

Value

$80.85

PnL

+$0.03

Record

37%

3197-5378 (8575)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.71

Value

$66.49

PnL

+$4.78

Record

68%

2063-953 (3016)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$65.63

Value

$65.87

PnL

+$0.24

Record

51%

4649-4526 (9175)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$53.32

Value

$53.66

PnL

+$0.34

Record

54%

553-471 (1024)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$27.6

Value

$27.75

PnL

+$0.15

Record

17%

76-374 (450)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$27.9

Value

$27.75

PnL

-$0.15

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$18.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

5657-5082 (10739)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.37

Value

$3.31

PnL

-$0.05

Record

42%

370-503 (873)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.