Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on November 12?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 68¢ · $427 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$427.16
$0.81
72.3¢ → 67.5¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 72.9¢ | $180.13 | $176.7 | -$3.43 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 70.9¢ | $140.72 | $141.61 | +$0.89 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 70.9¢ | $109.22 | $110.11 | +$0.89 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30¢ | $31.5 | $31.5 | +$0 | |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.9¢ | $83.48 | $86.7 | +$3.22 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $12.4 | $14.3 | +$1.9 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79.5¢ | $8.73 | $7.85 | -$0.88 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
Invested
$180.13
Value
$176.7
PnL
-$3.43
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$140.72
Value
$141.61
PnL
+$0.89
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
Both legs:
Invested
$83.48
Value
$86.7
PnL
+$3.22
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$12.4
Value
$14.3
PnL
+$1.9
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$8.73
Value
$7.85
PnL
-$0.88
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.