Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on November 12?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 59¢ · $567 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$566.64
$1.49
68.3¢ → 58.5¢
-14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 68.9¢ | $361.59 | $309.55 | -$52.04 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 32.6¢ | $140.45 | $179.04 | +$38.59 | 28% 214-553 (767) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.7¢ | $34.53 | $46.12 | +$11.59 | 69% 2060-946 (3006) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 63.4¢ | $60.55 | $20.33 | +$3.75 | 53% 346-302 (648) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $12 | $11.6 | -$0.4 | 53% 5455-4894 (10349) |
Invested
$361.59
Value
$309.55
PnL
-$52.04
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$140.45
Value
$179.04
PnL
+$38.59
Record
28%
214-553 (767)
Invested
$34.53
Value
$46.12
PnL
+$11.59
Record
69%
2060-946 (3006)
Invested
$60.55
Value
$20.33
PnL
+$3.75
Record
53%
346-302 (648)
Invested
$12
Value
$11.6
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
5455-4894 (10349)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.