Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 12?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 86¢ · $660 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$660.18
-$48.93
82.8¢ → 85.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 82.8¢ | $523.64 | $517.95 | -$5.69 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.8¢ | $80.97 | $62.72 | -$18.25 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.6¢ | $71.45 | $50.02 | -$21.43 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $17.2 | $16.37 | -$0.83 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $16.61 | $13.12 | -$2.74 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
Invested
$523.64
Value
$517.95
PnL
-$5.69
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$80.97
Value
$62.72
PnL
-$18.25
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$71.45
Value
$50.02
PnL
-$21.43
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$16.37
PnL
-$0.83
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
Invested
$16.61
Value
$13.12
PnL
-$2.74
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.