Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $262 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$262.35
-$0.65
96.9¢ → 96.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $95.88 | $95.41 | -$0.47 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $84.88 | $84.43 | -$0.45 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $29.1 | $29.13 | +$0.03 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $29.13 | $28.98 | -$0.15 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $19 | $19.42 | +$0.42 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $5.01 | $4.98 | -$0.03 | 47% 353-400 (753) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$95.88
Value
$95.41
PnL
-$0.47
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$84.88
Value
$84.43
PnL
-$0.45
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$29.1
Value
$29.13
PnL
+$0.03
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$29.13
Value
$28.98
PnL
-$0.15
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$19
Value
$19.42
PnL
+$0.42
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$5.01
Value
$4.98
PnL
-$0.03
Record
47%
353-400 (753)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.