Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $226 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$226.19
-$0.52
99.7¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $87.18 | $86.88 | -$0.3 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $71 | $70.86 | -$0.14 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.91 | +$0 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.85 | -$0.06 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $5.14 | $5.13 | -$0.01 | 45% 374-466 (840) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $3.57 | $3.56 | -$0.01 | 48% 337-362 (699) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$87.18
Value
$86.88
PnL
-$0.3
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
balthazar<$100Invested
$71
Value
$70.86
PnL
-$0.14
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.91
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.85
PnL
-$0.06
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$5.14
Value
$5.13
PnL
-$0.01
Record
45%
374-466 (840)
Invested
$3.57
Value
$3.56
PnL
-$0.01
Record
48%
337-362 (699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.