Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $307 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$306.64
-$1.34
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.9¢ | $129.81 | $129.23 | -$0.58 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $84.87 | $84.53 | -$0.34 | 99% 275-2 (277) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $59.67 | -$0.27 | 40% 1456-2158 (3614) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $16.57 | $16.5 | -$0.07 | 48% 343-365 (708) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.66 | $9.62 | -$0.04 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.13 | $7.1 | -$0.03 | 41% 689-993 (1682) |
LucerysInvested
$129.81
Value
$129.23
PnL
-$0.58
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$84.87
Value
$84.53
PnL
-$0.34
Record
99%
275-2 (277)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$59.67
PnL
-$0.27
Record
40%
1456-2158 (3614)
Invested
$16.57
Value
$16.5
PnL
-$0.07
Record
48%
343-365 (708)
Invested
$9.66
Value
$9.62
PnL
-$0.04
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$7.13
Value
$7.1
PnL
-$0.03
Record
41%
689-993 (1682)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.