Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or below on November 12?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 100¢ · $189 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 11%

Total Value

$189.15

Combined PnL

-$98.45

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$178.38

Total Shares180

Combined PnL-$1.41

Yes8 traders

Total Value$10.77

Total Shares1,197

Combined PnL-$97.04

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$179.79	$178.38	-$1.41	99% 398-3 (401)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$55.15	$5.46	-$49.69	61% 1153-751 (1904)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.73	$1.36	-$12.37	39% 3421-5409 (8830)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.65	$1.25	-$11.4	68% 2115-1000 (3115)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.97	$0.99	-$8.98	51% 4781-4575 (9356)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.27	$0.82	-$7.45	65% 444-243 (687)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.82	$0.67	-$6.43	19% 87-376 (463)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.03	$0.14	+$0.11	55% 729-596 (1325)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.09	-$0.82	32% 2924-6249 (9173)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$179.79

Value

$178.38

PnL

-$1.41

Record

99%

398-3 (401)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.15

Value

$5.46

PnL

-$49.69

Record

61%

1153-751 (1904)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.73

Value

$1.36

PnL

-$12.37

Record

39%

3421-5409 (8830)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.65

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$11.4

Record

68%

2115-1000 (3115)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.97

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$8.98

Record

51%

4781-4575 (9356)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.27

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$7.45

Record

65%

444-243 (687)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.82

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$6.43

Record

19%

87-376 (463)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.11

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.82

Record

32%

2924-6249 (9173)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.