Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on November 11?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $114 held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$114.49

Combined PnL

-$0.28

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$114.2

Total Shares114

Combined PnL+$0.01

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.29

Total Shares294

Combined PnL-$0.29

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$30.74	$30.75	+$0.01	37% 3112-5362 (8474)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$22.24	$22.24	+$0	42% 321-439 (760)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.98	+$0	30% 2638-6194 (8832)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$18.15	$18.15	+$0	41% 324-472 (796)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$16.55	$16.55	+$0	78% 298-83 (381)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.5	$3.5	+$0	99% 212-1 (213)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.03	$3.03	-$0	45% 306-367 (673)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.59	$0.29	-$0.29	12% 18-127 (145)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$30.74

Value

$30.75

PnL

+$0.01

Record

37%

3112-5362 (8474)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$22.24

Value

$22.24

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

321-439 (760)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2638-6194 (8832)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$18.15

Value

$18.15

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

324-472 (796)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$16.55

Value

$16.55

PnL

+$0

Record

78%

298-83 (381)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

212-1 (213)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.03

Value

$3.03

PnL

-$0

Record

45%

306-367 (673)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$0.29

Record

12%

18-127 (145)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.