Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 11?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $98 held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$97.54

Combined PnL

-$0.09

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$97.54

Total Shares98

Combined PnL-$0.09

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$30.58	$30.72	+$0.14	37% 3112-5362 (8474)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.97	$19.97	-$0	30% 2638-6194 (8832)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$18.2	$18.21	+$0.01	40% 644-964 (1608)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$10.89	$10.89	+$0.01	78% 298-83 (381)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$5.43	$5.1	-$0.27	55% 399-332 (731)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.06	$5.08	+$0.02	47% 292-335 (627)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.05	$5.05	+$0	42% 321-439 (760)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$2.5	$2.52	+$0.02	99% 212-1 (213)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$30.58

Value

$30.72

PnL

+$0.14

Record

37%

3112-5362 (8474)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.97

Value

$19.97

PnL

-$0

Record

30%

2638-6194 (8832)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$18.2

Value

$18.21

PnL

+$0.01

Record

40%

644-964 (1608)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

$10.89

PnL

+$0.01

Record

78%

298-83 (381)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.43

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.27

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

292-335 (627)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

321-439 (760)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$0.02

Record

99%

212-1 (213)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.