Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 89¢ · $108 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$107.55
$7.88
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 74.2¢ | $80.85 | $87.48 | +$6.63 | 23% 151-506 (657) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $9.99 | $10.9 | +$1.1 | 52% 247-230 (477) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $4.67 | $5.23 | +$0.57 | 52% 5301-4808 (10109) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $2.68 | $2.42 | -$0.26 | 35% 2886-5323 (8209) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $1.67 | $1.52 | -$0.15 | 87% 434-63 (497) |
Invested
$80.85
Value
$87.48
PnL
+$6.63
Record
23%
151-506 (657)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$10.9
PnL
+$1.1
Record
52%
247-230 (477)
Invested
$4.67
Value
$5.23
PnL
+$0.57
Record
52%
5301-4808 (10109)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$2.68
Value
$2.42
PnL
-$0.26
Record
35%
2886-5323 (8209)
Invested
$1.67
Value
$1.52
PnL
-$0.15
Record
87%
434-63 (497)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.