Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 15 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on November 11?

15 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (94%) · No at 29¢ · $183 held · ends Nov 11

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 94%

Total Value

$182.76

Combined PnL

-$135.77

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 29¢

-44% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 16 top traders (94%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$174.3

Total Shares566

Combined PnL-$135.83

Yes1 trader

Total Value$8.46

Total Shares12

Combined PnL+$0.06

No — 94%Yes — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 94% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 52.8¢	$101.22	$60.46	-$40.75	30% 256-590 (846)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$63.59	$31.31	-$32.27	68% 2062-949 (3011)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 65.7¢	$29.87	$17.96	-$11.91	81% 525-121 (646)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 46.1¢	$17.77	$10.43	-$7.34	51% 4598-4501 (9099)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 48.9¢	$14.3	$9.32	-$4.99	41% 342-497 (839)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$19.86	$8.6	-$11.25	54% 445-377 (822)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$8.4	$8.46	+$0.06	66% 4093-2118 (6211)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 71.3¢	$22.18	$8.42	-$13.76	37% 3136-5367 (8503)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 38.2¢	$11.02	$6.93	-$4.1	78% 314-87 (401)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 43.6¢	$8.71	$5.42	-$3.3	30% 2654-6198 (8852)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 27.8¢	$5.35	$4.61	-$0.74	40% 657-967 (1624)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$2.82	$3.08	+$0.26	48% 307-339 (646)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 62.6¢	$7.02	$3.04	-$3.98	53% 5575-4959 (10534)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$3.08	$2.46	-$0.62	43% 334-446 (780)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$1.97	$1.37	-$0.6	46% 317-371 (688)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$1.37	$0.89	-$0.48	42% 338-475 (813)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$101.22

Value

$60.46

PnL

-$40.75

Record

30%

256-590 (846)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$63.59

Value

$31.31

PnL

-$32.27

Record

68%

2062-949 (3011)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$29.87

Value

$17.96

PnL

-$11.91

Record

81%

525-121 (646)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$17.77

Value

$10.43

PnL

-$7.34

Record

51%

4598-4501 (9099)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$14.3

Value

$9.32

PnL

-$4.99

Record

41%

342-497 (839)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$19.86

Value

$8.6

PnL

-$11.25

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.46

PnL

+$0.06

Record

66%

4093-2118 (6211)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$22.18

Value

$8.42

PnL

-$13.76

Record

37%

3136-5367 (8503)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$11.02

Value

$6.93

PnL

-$4.1

Record

78%

314-87 (401)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$8.71

Value

$5.42

PnL

-$3.3

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$5.35

Value

$4.61

PnL

-$0.74

Record

40%

657-967 (1624)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.82

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.26

Record

48%

307-339 (646)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$7.02

Value

$3.04

PnL

-$3.98

Record

53%

5575-4959 (10534)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$3.08

Value

$2.46

PnL

-$0.62

Record

43%

334-446 (780)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$1.97

Value

$1.37

PnL

-$0.6

Record

46%

317-371 (688)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.37

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$0.48

Record

42%

338-475 (813)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 16 top traders (94%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 94% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.1%

29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$222.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

322.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.