Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or higher on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $388 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$387.54
$0.19
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $299.7 | $299.85 | +$0.15 | 100% 93-0 (93) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $50.5 | $50.52 | +$0.03 | 32% 811-1697 (2508) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.15 | $20.16 | +$0.01 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $11.88 | $11.89 | +$0.01 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.11 | $5.12 | +$0 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
Invested
$299.7
Value
$299.85
PnL
+$0.15
Record
100%
93-0 (93)
Invested
$50.5
Value
$50.52
PnL
+$0.03
Record
32%
811-1697 (2508)
Invested
$20.15
Value
$20.16
PnL
+$0.01
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$11.88
Value
$11.89
PnL
+$0.01
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5.11
Value
$5.12
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.